40 Replies Latest reply on Apr 17, 2013 12:06 PM by ghamorra RSS

    A formula for Actual Player Skill (APS)

      No one knows (apart from the devs) how "Skill Based Matchmaking" truly works.  From my experience, it seems to take SPM and place players on teams based on that, whereas the SUM total of each teams SPM would be as close as possible.


      That's all fine and dandy, except that SPM is not a determinant of skill.  Well, at least not by itself.


      What are stats that we can track to determine actual player skill (ASP)?

      -Score per minute (SPM)

      -Kill/Death Ratio (KDR)

      -Win/Loss Ratio (WLR)


      None of these as a standalone stat can determine player skill.


      Score per minute determines a player's aggressiveness.

      Kill/Death Ratio determines a player's ability to kill.

      Win/Loss Ratio determines a player's ability to do what's necessary to win.


      Each of these three stats will vary based on the player's team they're on. 

      -An average player on a team full of great players will have a lower SPM, Lower K/D and higher W/L ratio, typically.

      -An average player on a team full of bad players will have a higher SPM, higher K/D and lower W/L, typically.


      (Think about playing solo vs playing with a team of players.  When you're on a team of good players, you usually have to "fight" for kills, resulting in more deaths because you're playing more aggressive.  You'll also be "fighting" for objectives.  You'll also win more games.  When you're playing solo, you'll get a few more kills typically, the objective won't be "fought" for.  But you'll typically lose more games.  This is why you run into average clans, where their K/D is between 1-2 and their W/L is much higher than normal.)


      With that in mind, there needs to be a way to balance these three stats to come up with Actual Player Skill.


      Actual Player Skill could be calculated as such:

      Good player:

      SPM: 400

      K/D: 2.0

      W/L: 2.0

      Actual Player Skill: 1000


      Bad player:

      SPM: 200

      K/D: .75

      W/L: .75

      Actual Player Skill: 350


      Average player:

      SPM: 300

      K/D: 1.2

      W/L: 1.2

      Actual Player Skill: 510


      Now, take a player that plays the objective very hard, but takes a lot of deaths in the process, but helps his/her team win.

      Aggressive Player:

      SPM: 550

      K/D: .75

      W/L: 2.5

      Actual Player Skill: 1,165


      Now, take a player that camps, doesn't play the objective, and doesn't contribute to the team, but posts high K/Ds.

      Campy player

      SPM: 185

      K/D: 2.75

      W/L: .5

      Actual Player Skill: 393


      As you can see, the formula works.  If the objective is to win, you want the guy with the higher APS on your team, regardless.

      The formula can be calculated using each gametype when matchmaking occurs, which would make it so players who play TDM predominantly don't have a lower APS than someone who only plays objective gametypes.


      I consider myself an aggressive player, and my stats give me an APS of 1,058.


      The fomula I use for this is:


      Actual Player Skill = SPM * [1+(K/D + W/L) / 2)]


      You take the K/D and W/L and add them together.  Then you add 1.  (If you don't add 1, it gives K/D and W/L too much "weight")  Then you divide it by two.  Times that number by the Score Per Minute and you get Actual Player Skill. 


      I used this formula on a bunch of my friends to see where they'd rank, and sure enough, it seemed to put players right where they belong in terms of Actual Player Skill.  I believe this formula works.


      Let me know your opinions, and what your APS is.